Best Picture: First Update

Nominations (Dwindling to 7 solid nominees):

/\1. J. Edgar (5)

\/2. The Ides of March (1)

\/3. War Horse (2)

--4. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (4)

/\5. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (7)

--6. The Tree of Life (6)

\/7. A Dangerous Method (3)

Other Nomination Possibilities: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Melancholia, Drive, Midnight in Paris, We Bought a Zoo, The Artist (NEW), 50/50, Carnage

Dropped Out: Young Adult, The Descendants

First Predictions (Best Adapted Screenplay)

Here are my top 5 picks for Best Adapted Screenplay:

Eric Roth (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)

George Clooney & Grant Heslov (The Ides of March)

Steve Zaillian (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo)

Lee Hall & Richard Curtis (War Horse)

Christopher Hampton (A Dangerous Method)

Predicted Winner: George Clooney & Grant Heslov

Next In Line: Lee Hall & Richard Curtis

Could Surprise: Eric Roth

Other Nomination Possibilities: John Logan (Hugo), Cameron Crowe & Aline Brosh McKenna (We Bought a Zoo), Edgar Wright & Stephen Moffat (The Aventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn)

First Predictions (Best Original Screenplay)

Here are my top 5 picks for Best Original Screenplay:

Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)

Dustin Lance Black (J. Edgar)

Oren Moverman (Rampart)

Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)

Diablo Cody (Young Adult)

Predicted Winner: Dustin Lance Black

Next in Line: Woody Allen

Could Surprise: Terrence Malick

Other Nomination Possibilities: Mike Mills (Beginners), Drake Doremus & Ben York Jones (Like Crazy), Abi Morgan & Michael Hirst (The Iron Lady)

First Predictions (Animated Feature)

Here are my top 3 picks for Animated Feature:

Rango

Rio

The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn

Predicted Winner: The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn

Next in Line: Rango

Could Surprise: Rio

Other Nomination Possibilities: Winnie the Pooh, Cars 2, Puss in Boots

First Predictions (Best Director)

Here are my top 5 picks for Best Director:

George Clooney (The Ides of March)

David Cronenberg (A Dangerous Method)

David Fincher (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo)

Steven Spielberg (War Horse)

Clint Eastwood (J. Edgar)

Predicted Winner: Steven Spielberg

Next in Line: David Cronenberg

Could Surprise: George Clooney

Other Nomination Possibilities: Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life), Stephen Daldry (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close), Martin Scorsese (Hugo)

First Predictions (Supporting Actress)

Here are my top 5 picks for Supporting Actress:

Keira Knightly (A Dangerous Method)

Naomi Watts (J. Edgar)

Viola Davis (The Help)

Octavia Spencer (The Help)

Marisa Tomei (The Ides of March)

Predicted Winner: Viola Davis

Next In Line: Keira Knightly

Could Surprise: Octavia Spencer

Other Nomination Possibilities: Amy Adams (On the Road), Jessica Chastain (The Tree of Life), Marion Cotillard (Midnight in Paris)

First Predictions (Supporting Actor)

Here are my top 5 picks for Supporting Actor:

Armie Hammer (J. Edgar)

Viggo Mortenson (A Dangerous Method)

Paul Giamatti (The Ides of March)

Brad Pitt (The Tree of Life)

Christoph Waltz (Carnage)

Predicted Winner: Viggo Mortenson

Next in Line: Armie Hammer

Could Surprise: Christoph Waltz

Other Nomination Possibilities: Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Ides of March), Christopher Plummer (Beginners), Tom Hanks (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)

First Predictions (Lead Actress)

Here are my top 5 picks for Lead Actress:

Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)

Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)

Charlize Theron (Young Adult)

Rooney Mara (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo)

Emma Stone (The Help)

Predicted Winner: Meryl Streep

Next In Line: Michelle Williams

Could Surprise: Rooney Mara

Other Nomination Possibilities: Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin), Jodie Foster (Carnage), Anne Hathaway (One Day)

First Predictions (Lead Actor)

Here are my top 5 picks for Lead Actor:

Michael Fassbender (A Dangerous Method)

Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)

Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)

Ryan Gosling (The Ides of March)

George Clooney (The Descendants)

Predicted Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio

Next in Line: Ryan Gosling

Could Surprise: Michael Fassbender

Other Nomination Possibilities: Joseph Gordon-Levitt (50/50), Brad Pitt (Moneyball), Johnny Depp (The Rum Diary)

First Predictions (Best Picture)

Well, first of all welcome to this year's edition of Oscar Race: Who Will Win. Since most of the predicted winners aren't scheduled for release until later, I'm going to have to base these predictions on what seems to be most likely. So first, let me predict to you the Best Picture Nominees. One last thing. This year, as many of you know, the nominee number could fluctuate between 5-10, so I'm going to be safe and just put down the top 10 candidates.

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

J. Edgar

The Ides of March

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

A Dangerous Method

War Horse

The Descendants

The Tree of Life

Young Adult

We Bought a Zoo

Predicted Winner: The Ides of March

Next in Line: 2. War Horse, 3. A Dangerous Method

Could Surprise: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Other Nomination Possibilities: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Midnight in Paris, Carnage